Chris Albriton has been an independent reporter in and out of Iraq for almost two years now. His is a set of opinions I have come to trust. With elections there tomorrow, I take his predictions with some stock. Why? Because he writes it as he sees it:

BAGHDAD—Tomorrow Iraqis will go to the polls and, inshallah, get a better government that they have right now... Eventually. But first they will have to vote, and that's an activity fraught with peril.

The security situation is unreal. No cars tomorrow—except those with special passes, which includes media, cops, political guys, etc. in short, if you're an insurgent and you hit a car tomorrow, you're bound to get someone vaguely important. Only five polling stations in Baghdad will allow cameras or other electronic gear, so bear that in mind when you look at photographs of the election.

I'll be out in the thick of it for a while at least... Out with my photographer and seeing what goes on. Not sure if I'll be driving or walking. That will depend on my security guys. This is a free election? Insurgent pamphlets are being distributed that anyone walking to a polling center is a target. Several centers have already been blown up. The fear is thick enough to cut with a knife. The Iraqi security forces—with their American patrons—have tanks at the end of my street. Old Soviet T-55s, but tanks, nonetheless.

No one knows what's going to happen, whether it's the level of violence, the level of turnout or who will win. The Sistani-blessed United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) list is expected to do well, but I would be shocked if it got an absolute majority. My predictions for the elections...

Like I said, he writes it as he sees it. As Mike pointed out, he works for Time also. I know this. The only restrictions on his blog are that he can't scoop himself. For instance, when he interviewed Allawi, he didn't blog about it until after the relevant issue of Time came out, at which point he posted a much more lengthy transcrip than was published on paper. The whole point of what he's doing has been to provide better "context" and, since he started working as part of the regular reporter pool, to talk about the State of Journalism in a war zone.