I'm channelling a little old Hunter S. Thomson tonight. The countdown to Iowa is intense, but I'm feeling positive about this thing. George Bush was publicly booed today laying a wreath at the MLK memorial. Prostesters were walled behind busses, but apparently audible for the president. I fired off this to Leutenant Robbins, who's in the Shit somewhere near Wanoski.
Frank;
Do you relaize how fucking invaluable the experience you and Joe are getting right now is? You're fighting it out in the shit, and doing it for one of the most amazing political campaigns in American history. Very few others will have a chance to claim the experience which you are now earning. It's a good career move, if nothing else.
But we're going to win this thing, Frank. We could finish second in Iowa AND New Hampshire and still win this thing. The reason is that we've got an amazing candidate who says amazing things. The only thing they really have on our guy is that he shoots his mouth off. Nothing he's ever said is indefensible.
The other reason is the sheer fucking brute force this campaign has nationwide.
Kerry's surging in Iowa. People want a hero. Makes sense that the Anointed Prince, long faced-bandit that he is, will ride again. The problem is, this prince doesn't come off like a standard-bearer in real life. Nice in paper and photographs, but when people see him on the stump, they loose their vigor. He's a ponce, and everyone knows it. His young days of throwing his medals on the floor of congress are gone, and cynical people now wonder if even that gesture was entirely for real. Kerry seems kind of like a Phony.
Edwards drives a cool bus, but he's too young and nice looking for these dark times. In 2000 he would have been divine on the stump against Bush, but these days you need some serious political gravity to stand on the national stage, and his sunny Carolina charm just don't cut it. He should do well down the line, when times improve or he grows a wrinkle or two. It's a long way to the top if you want to Rock and Roll, kid.
Gephardt... poor Gephardt. The tired old warrior has strapped the Armor once more, and he's lumbering around the field laying waste to wherever his heavy mace will reach. He's a tough motherfucker, but his won/loss record just isn't promising. He's dropped the ball one too many times in the past, and outside his hard core people aren't comfortable with him, given how high the stakes are. Everyone more or less knows the old ways are gone.
Leiberman has completed his transformation into the dad of the girl you tried to date in high school. The one who never let you stay out past 10.
The Clark (Other White Meat) is down at the other end of the court shooting freethrows, winking at the cheerleaders, and thinks he's winning the game. He's not getting beat around, but he's only now laying the groundwork outside NH to really hit big in any of the following states. He has roots, but not the same kind of self-directing, freelance, contra partisans that Dean has raised.
Dean. That hard working little bugger just won't go down. They've been hitting him with every fucking thing they have, aiming almost all their energy at taking him down. Even in Iowa, no one can pause to take their eyes off Dean for fear he'll jut ahead and torch them all. Dean's shock troops will keep up the good work, reminding people that Dean's just a doctor and a levelheaded Governor of the state of Vermont, and that he wants things to be the way they should be. And he's got a fucking posse.
And he's a likable fucking man. People Magazine knows this, and by proxy so does the country.
Any opponent of his will be facing asymmetric guerilla warfare on his home turf (the south), and under heavy air, artillery and infantry assault everywhere else. That will be the scenario against Bush as well, once the time comes.
I predict we soften our "movement" edge, play up the positives in what Dean is proposing, get some more people to endorse a Sea Change in how the democratic party is run, and we'll be sitting pretty by mid march.
The only one who can compete is Clark. He's the compromise candidate in terms of how the party will be run: the establishment, but with limited netroots armies. Anyone else will find it difficult to raise big money on a timetable to compete, and no one can hope to "go live" in more than 2 or 3 of the 20 upcoming primary states.
And Clark will fall. His support is not as solid as ours, his grassroots not as deep and wide, and his campaign still probably a little buggy. Apropops his resume, he's the candidate who is more untested in battle. We will outlast, and the opposition to Dean will not rally behind any one candidate. We can count on at least half of everyone else's supporters to come back when their candidate of choice drops. More than half, I think.
On my front, preparations for the joining of the Major battle is going well. We're assembling some amazing siege machinery to assault the The Court of Bush's with. We've got the guns, AND we've got the numbers, and we have a great story to tell. This movement is going to roll.
Lock and load. The velvet revolution begins.
