Let's think about the big picture.

There have been a bevvy of scandals swirling around the White House for years. The truth is that with the GOP in charge of congress, it's unlikely that anything substantive will happen. With Bush hovering in the mid 30s for approval, and the GOP congress fairing little better, will any Democrats come forward with a "hold them accountable" message? I think in some districts it could work, but it seems unlikely to emerge as a national narrative.

I think it would work. I think this will be a base election, and I think most Democrats and Independents want to see Bush held accountable. I think some republicans do too. "Suponea Power," baby.

I have a few friends in and around DC and plugged in various ways, and everyone seems to think we should take the possibility of a bombing campaign against Iran very seriously. I think this could be pretty unpredictable. The long-term effects would probably be pretty bad, but it's hard to say how the short-term politics would bounce. It might give them a boost.

Think about it. If Bush were to start pulling troops out of Iraq this summer -- which is a good idea, especially if you're going to bomb Iran, which will make Iraq a lot harder to hold -- he'd get a bump. If the White House followed with a full-court fear-press on Iran in the fall, given the way the press is already acting, it might just go over. If this is the calculus, they'll be looking for 2002 redux, maybe with a little October Surprise for Dobson and his legons of exurban evangelicals.

Other big picture stuff... Michael Moore's movie about health care should drop this year. Heath care was big in polling for Democrats, and Energy is up across the board. Iran figures strong in there too.

Bush's Administration is increasingly full of unpopular people. Ditto the GOP congress. Change is unlikely. With DeLay and Abramoff and who knows who else, out and Rove by all accounts occupied saving his own fat ass from Fitzgerald, the machinists are falling down on the job, and the grand coalition is collapsing. Cheney has like a 20% appoval rating. Rumsfeld is going the same way, but Dubya has his back:

I'm the decider, and I decide what is best. And what's best is for Don Rumsfeld to remain as the secretary of defense.

He's the decider only as long as Congress plays along. We don't live in a monarchy, yet.