"Undermining my electoral viability since 2001."

Woman King

I was driving all day yesterday, but I tuned in to a little Air America AM in th evening to pick up the news that Sen. Clinton came back and beat the polls to edge out Barack Obama in New Hampshire. This is interesting. Here are the takeaways I think are worth noting:

  • Turnout in Iowa and NH was record-breaking, but only on the Democratic side. That means two things: 1) the polls are not going to be great predictors of final results and 2) Democratic primary voters are much more excited and engaged than Republicans.
  • Now that neither Clinton or Obama are running away with the nomination, it's interesting that the candidate with momentum in the national polling is Edwards. He's been suffering from a relative media blackout, but it appears that people who tune in seem to be receptive to his anti-corporate message.
  • On the Right, it's still wide open, though Guiliani seems headed downward, and Mitt Romney will need to win something soon in order to stay viable as his national poll numbers have always been weak.
  • This starts to shape up as a real primary fight, one that could go on even beyond Feb 5th. While conventional wisdom favors a quick decision -- the better to consolidate -- I think a real primary season favors Democrats. Thusfar there's been very little bad blood, and a contested primary provides more avenues and opportunities to get people excited and engaged, to organize.
  • For the GOP, which is suffering from a lack of popular candidates and general demoralization, and where there has been significant bad blood built between the various candidates' supporters, the longer this drags on, the more it drives their coalition apart.

In all it's good news for Democrats in general, and for Millennials in particular -- the youth wave rolls on! -- so that's good. Clinton is my least-favorite of the Big Three, but she's not the end of the world. Dynasty sucks and she's the most deeply wedded to The Establishment, but she's also probably the candidate with the greatest personal strength, and is a cagey veteran when it comes to fighting the conservative movement.

Those things are important. She might not set her sights too high, but she will be in the business of Getting Shit Done. Plus, I'm generally a fan of putting women in charge. Having a Woman King wouldn't be all that bad.

I'm hoping this turns into a real race. The pressure is finally forcing these people to take risks and push the envelope. Edwards should continue to drive his important anti-corporate message, Obama should be pushed to get specific about his hopeful wave, and Clinton should continue having to make a non-inevitablity-based case for why she's the woman for the job.

And on the Republican side there will continue to be fireworks worth watching.

Responses