It's a day of celebration for fundimentalists and hard-liners all over the US of A. Samuel Alito, a man who opposed the admission of minorities and women to his alma matter of Princeton, has replaced Sandra Day O'Conner, the first female on the Supreme Court. The right wing political machine will churn up an increasing number of challenges to Roe v. Wade to the court over the next several years, as well as attacks on affirmative action programs, etc. The framework of federal standards for equality which was the legacy of the last liberal generation will be significantly eroded over the next few decades.

For all of us living in nice places like New York and California, Massachusetts and Vermont, this doesn't really mean all that much. The real action now is on the state level, and all the places I'd ever consider living have a pretty solid bedrock of progressive values. Over in Mississippi, where there's already literally only one clinic in the whole state where you can get an abortion, people are going to have a harder time, I think. Welcome to the century of states rights. Make the most of it.

On the national level the only issue is Presidential power. Should any of Bush's abuses of Presidential power be investigated or otherwise tested in court, there are probably four solid pro-King-George votes, meaning only one of the moderates needs swinging. And it will go to court. If by some miracle the Democrats are able to build enough momentum to force some investigations, I don't think it's likely that Bush will bow to any demands from congress. Any attempt to curb or centure his behavior will be fought to the end, meaning the SCOTUS, where he's got quite a little fan club going.

But I don't think it's very likely he'll be investigated, which is in some ways better. If no one presses the legal question, the imperial Presidency may just fade away, an embarassing relic of a turbulent time, like when we locked up all the Japaneese people in those camps in the desert. If it's ratified by the Supreme Court, that's real, a solid blow against the Republic.

The action now is in the states. For people who disagree with the radical right's view of what America should be (a legislatively-mandated Leave It To Beaver), the real task is now to build local organizations which can place progressive representatives in State Senates and Assemblies, resist crackpot citizen-initiatives, and begin pushing for local leaders -- from Governors down to Mayors -- to be innovative and bold in crafting good governance.

There are opporunities here, but States are going to be ineffective at regulating corporate behavior, which remains one of the greatest challenges of government in the modern era. I mean, Exxon pulls in significantly more revenue than even the State of California. So that's a problem.

Also, PFAW and NAARAL should probably go up on a mountain and figure out why they keep taking honest people's money.

An interesting theory on why Bush's wiretapping program couldn't go though the FISA court:

[T]he source of the intel tips is tainted. If you are generating leads from persons being held in secret prisons or if the info is obtained thru torture, then it makes it difficult to make a truthful declaration before a judge. Why not lie to the FISA court? That's called perjury. I suspect this explains the real motive for the refusal of the Bush Administration to go the FISA route.

This seems much more probable than the idea that Bush had the NSA spying on John Kerry, although since they won't tell us anything about this program we have no real way to know.

From a kos diary which covers Bush approval from a number of angles. I just have a particular interest in this. Look at some of these trends:

Texas:

55+	35 - 55	18 - 34

About the only place this dynamic isn't at work is in Utah, which actually has the precise reverse. Utah Youth Stand By Their Leader! Well, actually, Maine seems to have the same thing going on, though to a much less extreme degree. It woudld be interesting to map demographic changes as well, as in which states have young people moving away, which ones have them staying, etc.

But for scholars of electorality, just check the deep blue character of the youth in Ohio, Florida and PA. I'm aware of the old saw about how if you're not a liberal with your young you have no heart, but I think this is more than just your typical young/old liberal/conservative spread. Younger people don't pay much attention to the 24-hour cable ecosystem, which is the central hub of the Bush propaganda message machine. Younger Americans are more likely to be looking online for their information, and while this presents some dangers in that it's easy to stay in a partisan crease on the internet, the general quantity, quality and depth of information you get is a cut above the high-fructose corn syrup that the talking heads offer, if only because of the prevalence of linking.

As the semantic web emerges both in thought and in deed, and as commenting/publishing systems become better suited to sustaining conversation and debate, there's a chance that the signal-to-noise ratio online will improve, especially if improvements in social behavior (e.g. the type of stuff I see Glenn Greenwald succeeding in doing in terms of really trying to engage other writers) create a culture of inquiry rather than a playground shouting match.

It's not going to happen overnight. The info-war tactics of the "Conservative Movement," as well as the counter-tactics from the left-wing resistance, have left us literally in a state of cold civil war. That'll take some time to defuse, but when it happens (and it will, one way or another), there's a decent chance that if the Internet is still Free (as in Freedom), that a much more productive, advanced and inclusive civil society could emerge. I'm hoping it's here by the time I have kids in high school.

Hamas wins big in Palestine.

Frank has the best buzzword reaction I've seen yet: Rogue Democracy. We've got Rogue Democracies in Palestine, in Venezuela, in Bolivia and who knows where next. Maybe right here in the good old US of A? This must be stopped...

This is the harsh reality of Bush's statecraft. If you go around pushing democracy while simultaniously turning most of the world against your policies, you're going to have some unhappy results.