Fuck it, I'm a prophet. I'm going to spout off about the future like I know what I'm talking about. I've done it before, and I'll do it again.

Here's a note to the Pundits and other (self)Important People of the world: your days are numbered. As the network paradigm continues to supplant broadcast-based hierarchy (a revolution that will probably take another 20 to 30 years before we can say anything with historical certanty), the Andy Warhol metric of notoriety is slowly giving way to the David Weinberber rule; everyone's famous for 15 minutes vs. everyone's famous for 15 people. This doesn't mean there aren't Important People out there. It means we don't waste time with the notion that the 10,000 individuals who populate the mass-media ecology are any more intrinsically noteworthy than the rest of us.

I was sitting in my bathroom the other day trying to put my finger on what was to troubling to me about the Personal Democracy Forum. It wasn't just the disorientation that comes from being suddenly in the middle of an idea-space rather than on the edge; and it wasn't just the feeling of being co-opted that comes from people mouthing my message with questionable sincerity; it was the strong elitist vibe that occasionally spiked through the air.

I believe that the coming wave of civilization, if it's to be a positive one rather than a regression (still an open question, I'm afraid), is powered by rennaisance ideals like meritocracy, peaceful ambition and widely distributed opportunity. It is not a world of uniform outcomes or forced equality, but it is a realm where the truth of human potential is realized. Where we recognize and make the most of our abilities; and where those who are momentarily ascendent do not come so much to consider themselves as being in any real way above the rest of us.

Fame doesn't go away, nor does wealth or positions of high power. There will always be leaders and owners and celebrities, but a more open and level playling field invites there to be many more of them, and in turn to render them more civil and connected to the wholeness of the world. In a networked civilization, power is humble, because it cannot be solidified. The only way to retain power is to remain fit. There are many ways to do it, but thinking you're better than anyone ain't one of 'em. The masses aren't asses; they'll factcheck your ass, and 500 of them probably have more original thoughts and better writing than you do, so try not to talk down to them.

So we'll see a breaking of the old system of elites, and likely the creation of many new circles of power. A year or two ago, people talked about the A-list of bloggers, the most fit of the first movers, but now with thousands of writers joining the fray literally every day, they're just one of many centers of social capital. An influential group of individuals, sure, but now somewhat less important as vastly more voices speak up.

Here's an example. An anonymous blogger writes about cable news. He/She writes so well and so insightfully that the word is that it's done by some well-known player in the biz. It's an 18-year-old college freshman. People are surprised, but why? So you really think people in the professional world of 24-hour cable news are that much more eriudite or informed than an above-average 18-year-old? Oh man, rude awakening.

This is going to happen more and more, and I don't mean cheap identity tricks; I mean people are going to have to realize that there are way more talented people than there are famous, and that the balance of power is shifting. Fitness is the future.

A couple big updates for you; one professional, one more personal. You can read down and get the personal, but in keeping with how my life has been going for the past six or eight months, the personal comes first.

So I went to the Personal Democracy Conference and I was sort of bored. There interesting things transpire, but at the same time nothing really happens. I probably shouldn't say that, but I don't think I was the target audience for the thing, so I don't think I'll be hurting anyones feelings by being brutally honest.

I've heard all this before, only now more "important people" are saying it. The words I believe in are there, but they mouth them without passion. It sounds like politics as usual. It feels corporate. That this is a kind of progress I have no doubt, but the magic is gone. The little moments that peek through are good, but I don't know what to make of all this. It's the feeling I got the other week at the Tank -- the same surreal feeling of hearing what sounds like a self-echo -- but much more strong, and kinda unpleasent.

It makes me feel illegitimate. All the words are here, the words that I believe in, but little of the understanding and no one with passion. There are parts and people where it feels close; but there's a lot of resistence and a lot of faking it. The powers that be fear change. The redistribution of power isn't going to be a completely smooth process. It rarely is.

But few people were there pushing the revolution. Trippi did a good Trippi, talking up the future, but most of the others from the Dean camp were reflective or subdued. They had a chat screen behind the panel for some of the sessions, which provided some good live moments (technical difficulties aside) but what came through more than helpful contextual information was frustration. We're not hitting it yet. There's an elephant in the room that everyone can sense; but everyone is also blind, so no one knows what it is. I certainly don't have the answers.

The organizers should be commended. Such a conference, not to mention such a format, is a bold experiment. My sense is that it's difficult to talk about the emerging union between politics and technology without moving rapidly to tactics, to specifics and plans of action. It's also difficult to have a conference on something that's just emerging, that nobody really understands. The real players and honest minds will admit that they are inside something that is in flux, that they understand little and that nothing is fixed. The more hackish will step up act like they know. One kind tends to go on a panel more than another, tends to talk more, tends to dominate the atmosphere some.

A perfect example; David Weinberger was there, so wonderfully open honest about it all. I quipped to him in the lobby that I was glad he brought his "authentic human voice," and I don't know if he knew I was being sincere but I was. He's my McLuhan, a father (or at least kindly uncle) to the movement, and he's one of the few voices up there that I felt was actually and honestly attempting to grapple with the moment.

But as I said, the organizers should be commended. It's quite a thing, to bring all these folks together. Someday maybe I'll get to be one of the guys on the stage. That would be fun. I like talking to an audience.

As with most conferences, the real action was on the margins; in the cocktail reception and food-getting afterwards. I got another chance to goof around with Matt Stoller, who I now realize reminds me amazingly of Chris Wild. I got to talk a little more with Micah, Rob, Britt and Joe, who I think of as my grown-up allies and co-revolutionaries. I got to meet some great people from Indyvoter (attractive and almost San Franciscan Niana) and Billionares for Bush (adventurous and honest Andrew). Justin Krebs from the Tank put me in touch with a bunch of good people. I saw some familiar friendly faces from the Digital Democracy Teach-In. I shook an elected officials hand. I got to say hi to Matt Gross, who I had kind of avoided before because I didn't know if he knew who I was. Finally I got to drink a nice tall drink with Jay Rosen, who gave us some good hustorical analysis and a some excellent vocabulary to weild.

It's more social connections than you can ever use at one time, but I think the theory is that you're panning for gold, and everyone knows that most of the folks there are silt; and we're ok with that. Some good will come of this. The cause of humanity was advanced.

The personal life is going allright. I've realized that I want to move back to New York coty. It's my desire to live with the kind of company and opportunities that the city provides. I recognize all that San Francisco has to offer, and I plan on being a frequent visitor, but the city is my home.

I could write more rhapsody for New York. It's tempting, and I'll most likely slip back into that at some point along the line. But the thing about this is that deciding I want to go back to NY presents all kinds of problems.

Theoretically I can keep my job and do this. Assuming there's a job to keep -- and we all seem serious about making sure there is -- there's no true work-related reason to keep me in San Francisco, and some compelling opportunities (it would seem) in moving back East. New York City is a place where I can wheel and deal. It's a symbiotic thing. I come alive when I am there in a way that I do not in California. Part of it is friends and existing social connections, but a big part of it is that being in the city flips a switch in me. I become a different person, someone much more powerful I think.

Why this is is a mystery to me. LIke I said, part of it is old friends, but I didn't spend a lot of time with my old friends comparatively speaking. The politics of New York agree with me much more than the politics of San Francisco. New York is a real cultural center, a Main Connection between the US and the rest of the world. I miss swimming in that great big pond.

I worry about ego creep. I met with Steve while I was in New York, who told me to follow what excites me and to not be afraid of taking scary steps. I still don't know what the right thing to do is often, or what I want. I feel lonely at times, but I don't think I can honor a relationship. Relational power. Relationship power. Loveless, it's harder to walk in an avaristic world; but I don't know that I'm ready for love again. In fact I doubt it. I feel like a handsome devil -- in kind of a bad way.

Shadow shadow on the wall, if I become you, will it mean that I fall... or is that the only way to grow... I think I have to get serious not only about what I'm doing with my life, but also about attending to the art of living. The last time I laid down with a girl, she cought me sleeping with my eyes open. Literally. That's gotta be a warning sign.

Gore summs the situation, which is something I've been working on too. I'm not too mad about it though. To be honest, I find it comforting when "the adults" come through with the good word. Makes me feel like a little less of the world is riding on my shoulders.

It's a long read, but it's good. Hints of pedantry at points, but 99% on target. I'll have to do a youth culture translation I suppose.

I've completed the task that's been consuming my life for the past month and a half. Go visit and tell me what you think. Pass it on!

Just back from a dynomite party in Brooklyn. A fellow ETW alumni who's actually making the theater thing happen, working around the world, living in downtown Brooklyn with a bunch of other people, an amazing network of friends and associates coming alive in the back yard. It was everything a Brooklyn party should be; reminded me of the good old days when we used to do it up there at the meek. All in the mix and all good times.

And then a ride home, stopping for eats in trendy billzburg, bouncing from all-nite because it wasn't a hip version of the Kellog anymore, getting pizza -- rockstar slice slinger like the greatest damn bartender in the world, eyeing the ladies and tossing up the good stuff -- and a little conversation with a girl decked in pink who wrote for a big magazine and was coming from working the door at Billionares for Bush's gala ball. I was gonna go, but I didn't get back from work in time to do my laundry. Couldn't show in dirty jeans and a stinky cut-off t-shirt; woulda been uncouth.

It's all going down. The life here makes me hopeful. It's all evolving, coming together. If we can learn to balance the necesity of ego with the peril of hubris, we'll be sitting pretty. Stay true to yourself and stay humble, oui?

And lately, I'm driven by the angelic virtue of Fela Kuti, and a moment of unity is found. Everything is ajar and imperminant these days, but the general motion is good, and obsessing about the details can only derail the works. So roll. Be real and be open and be adventurous and good things will happen.

All sorts of weirdness here: Bush Suffers Cuts, Bruises While Biking:

Bush was wearing his bike helmet and a mouth guard when the mishap occurred. Duffy said he didn't know exactly how the accident happened.

"It's been raining a lot and the topsoil is loose," the spokesman said. "You know this president. He likes to go all out. Suffice it to say he wasn't whistling show tunes.

I'm glad Bush protects his bean, but according to the weather channel, it hasn't rained in at least a week in Crawford. And that bit about "whistling showtunes?" I guess that's supposed to be making fun of people who like musical theater, who may or may not be gay.

Bush is supposed to go on TV monday. Wonder if we'll see any visible damage. From the AP photo, it doesn't look too bad. Also: scrape on chin and temple. It's fucking hard to abrase your temple when you're wearing a bike helmet.

While the prez has proven his ability to fall off easier things to ride than a mountain bike, the weird and inconsistant details around this remind me a lot more of the pretzel incident.

I don't know whether or not Bush is off the wagon, or if he and his wife really do fight, but the notion that he got these injuries falling off a bike is suspect. The rain thing only makes it moreso. Well see if anything emerges. Probably not. Just another day in the spin cycle I suppose.

So I made a few changes to the ol' website; should be kinder to old browsers. Other than that I've been pushing this over the top. After a month and a half of struggling, the grand combination is in process. It's all gravy.

And I'm pretty happy. I'm looking forward to having my own bed again, but I'm also looking further forward to coming back to New York.

It's been a stressful month, but I have a feeling like the good times are about to start rolling.

low culture: Rumsfeld's Rules: Donald's Photoblog, Vol. 2

I haven't wanted to comment on this... shit. It goes beyond my ability to reason. I don't know what to say. I wish this weren't happening.

But I can't say I'm really surprised. Nauseated, yes, but if you take a second, it's not hard to see how it all happened.

Maybe that's something worth illustrating. I can't really bring myself to talk directly about the torture, but I could do a little linky-essay on how the root causes are clear for anyone to see.

Yahoo! News - Andy Kaufman Returns After 20 Years

!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, you had to see that coming...